Slate Magazine | We’re Seeing Exactly What Happens When You Can Bet On War—and It’s Horrifying by Alex Kirshner
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The article reports that a U.S. Army special‑forces master sergeant, identified as Gannon Ken Van Dyke, was charged by the Justice Department for illegally using confidential information to place large bets on the prediction‑market platform Polymarket that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be ousted—profits that turned roughly $34,000 of bets into a $400,000 windfall after the January raid. It explains how insider‑trading rules are clear in traditional markets but murkier in prediction markets, where traders can profit from privileged knowledge about military or political events, and highlights the broader risks of abuse as these platforms become popular, especially under a political climate that encourages profiting from government actions. The piece also raises questions about why similar non‑military abuses are not pursued with the same vigor, critiques the industry’s attempts to portray itself as regulated, and underscores concerns that prediction markets, by allowing bets on virtually any future event, pose a growing national‑security and corruption problem.
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https://slate.com/technology/2026/04/polymarket-kalshi-trump-prediction-markets-maduro.html
#NicolásMaduro #VanDyke #Polymarket #CFTC #military #GannonKenVanDyke
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