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‘Unpredictable’ policies: Rules-based trade with US is ‘over’: Canada central bank head

The era of rules-based trade with the United States is “over,” Canada’s central bank governor said Wednesday, echoing a stark warning from the country’s prime minister that President Donald Trump’s impact on global trade is permanent.

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem made the comments during an interest rate announcement which held the key rate at 2.25 percent, citing “unpredictable” US trade policies.

Macklem has repeatedly warned that the bank’s efforts to forecast the Canadian economy had grown increasingly difficult given the tariffs imposed and threatened by Trump.

On Wednesday he made clear that he agrees with Prime Minister Mark Carney, who told the World Economic Forum last week that there would be no going back to a pre-Trump normal in the US-led international system.

“It’s pretty clear that the days of open rules-based trade with the United States are over,” Macklem told reporters.

In a speech that has captured global attention, Carney said “nostalgia is not a strategy,” urging middle-sized powers who have previously benefitted from the stability of US economic dominance to recognize that a new reality had set it.

More than 75 percent of all Canadian exports go to the United States and the country remains uniquely vulnerable to Trump’s protectionism.

Macklem said Canadian growth remains stunted by US policy.

[..] the most severe disruptions may be yet to come, Macklem stressed.

Trump has so far broadly adhered to the existing North American free trade agreement, which he signed and praised during his first term.

With the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement (USMCA) still holding, more than 85 percent of all bilateral trade has remained tariff‑free.

But talks on updating that deal are set for this year and the Trump administration has indicated it could seek major changes, or may move to scrap the pact entirely, an outcome that would upend the Canadian economy.

“The upcoming review of the (USMCA) is an important risk,” Macklem said. https://today.rtl.lu/news/world/rules-based-trade-with-us-is-over-canada-central-bank-head-1408255488

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